Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.5%. Yes opened at 5% on 12 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2024 to 19 Jul 2024, the highest close was 19.3% on 15 Jul 2024 and the lowest 2.3% on 17 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 19.3% on 15 Jul 2024. $30.26K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 3:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 12 Jul 2024 – 19 Jul 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2024 | 5.0% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 5.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lawyered.eth | Yes | 6.57K |
| ScubaSteve21 | Yes | 400 |
| BasicallyNPC | Yes | 20 |
| Humble-Walrus | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 2024 Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 15-18, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barron Trump is a speaker at the Republican National Convention. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Barron will be considered a "speaker" if he publicly gives a speech from the main stage of the convention. A speech given virtually but displayed from the main stage, or displayed throughout the convention space will count toward a "Yes" resolution. Simply appearing on the main stage of the convention floor will not count for a "Yes" resolution, he must actually give a speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-speak-at-republican-national-convention
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