Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 50%. Yes opened at 50% on 4 Jan 2023. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2023 to 30 Apr 2023 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 4 Jan 2023 and the lowest 1% on 22 Jan 2023. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 26% on 7 Jan 2023. $128.18K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 15, 12:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 4 Jan 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2023 | 50.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Orbit D4B2 | Yes | 1.12M |
| bradcm1 | Yes | 7.37K |
| Silent-Chive | Yes | 3.52K |
'Avatar: The Way of Water' (2022) is an upcoming American action adventure fantasy sci-fi film produced by 20th Century Studios. It is the second installment of the Avatar film series directed by James Cameron. It is scheduled for theatrical release in the USA on December 16, 2022. This is a market on how much 'Avatar: The Way of Water' will gross domestically by January 31, 2023 (inclusive). The “Domestic Daily” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3372254721/ will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Avatar: The Way of Water' grosses more than $650,000,000 domestically by January 31, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates January 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $650 million, this market will resolve immediately to "Yes." This market may only resolve to "No" once the January 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized, or if Jan 31, 2023 date is not available, the nearest previous date with available data.
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3372254721/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-avatar-the-way-of-water-gross-more-than-650-million-domestically-by-january-31-2023
| Yes |
| 2.66K |
| JerryJones42 | Yes | 1.4K |
| Massive-Brilliant | No | 432.04 |
| Unsightly-Insurgence | Yes | 319.94 |
| Immaterial-Hops | Yes | 287.67 |
| Acrobatic-Airfare | Yes | 247.83 |
| Passionate-Use | Yes | 100.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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