Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 19% on 9 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2026 to 13 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 13 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19% on 9 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 92.5% on 12 Jan 2026. $51.37K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Jan 2026 – 13 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2026 | 19.0% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 21.56K |
| TENETENET | No | 500 |
| itsjustcheddar | No | 225.96 |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 135.31 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" will gross domestically on its 4th weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (January 9 - January 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avatar-fire-and-ash-4th-weekend-box-office-lower-strikes
| twrwd | No | 71.43 |
| JustBeHappy | No | 69.45 |
| masturbator3000 | No | 50 |
| tiancs | No | 50 |
| 0xwon | No | 40 |
| paas2 | No | 30 |
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