Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 18 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 270 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2025 to 3 Jul 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 18 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 4% on 19 Sep 2025. $88.37M traded over the market's life.
652 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 11:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 271 points, 18 Sep 2025 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | 50.0% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 52.33M |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 1.5M |
| lepetitebutler | Yes | 1.5M |
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| puipui2486 | Yes | 1.4M |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 1.13M |
| jlo12345 | Yes | 1.1M |
| aussieaussieaussie | Yes | 975.74K |
| asjabaasj | Yes | 948.75K |
| Q96s3kwozynxpau | Yes | 885.82K |
| FootballFan98 | Yes | 521.76K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
