Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$498.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 40.5%. Yes opened at 35% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 59.5% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 5 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 54.5% on 28 Jan 2026. $498.52K traded over the market's life.

208 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 4:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jan 2026	35.0%
31 Jan 2026	59.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	87.74K
Solar Quasar D3DA	Yes	20K
ParlayJesus	Yes	6.33K
fwed33	Yes	3.92K

10 of 208 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The 2026 Australian Open is set to take place from January 12 - February 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.