Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 81.1%. Yes opened at 21% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 72 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 10 May 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 8 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 47% on 3 May 2026. $795.45 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 2:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 1 May 2026 – 11 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 21.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 18.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 80 |
| niglette | Yes | 11.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ariana Grande officially releases Petal by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Petal is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Ariana Grande album officially confirmed to be the Petal project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ariana-grande-release-petal-by
New to prediction markets?
| Yes |
| 10.01 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 5 |
| Coral Kestrel E671 | No | 1.12 |
