Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 63%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 14 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 14 Jul 2026 to 15 Jul 2026, the highest close was 37% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 33.5% on 14 Jul 2026. $1.53K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 16, 9:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 14 Jul 2026 – 15 Jul 2026, chart shows 30%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | 33.5% |
| 15 Jul 2026 | 37.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.65K |
| Venimous | Yes | 611.55 |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 462.27 |
| balthazar | Yes | 244.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country finishes 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup (i.e., loses the third-place match/playoff). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team officially recognized by FIFA as finishing in fourth place. If multiple teams are officially awarded fourth place, the market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed country to finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup (e.g. they are eliminated from the tournament or eliminated from contention for fourth place), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2nd, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,, or there is otherwise no 4th place team declared (e.g. no third-place match is played), this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-4th-place-finish-20260713190429234
| korda77 | Yes | 92.17 |
| Teamlotus | Yes | 50.01 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Perfect-Neighbourhood | Yes | 15.38 |
| LudoMassa | Yes | 14.71 |
| paspor | Yes | 8.33 |
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