Analytics
Resolved $1 first on 10 Jun 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had $1 first at 86%. The $1 first side opened at 38% on 29 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 69 daily closes on record from 29 Mar 2023 to 10 Jun 2023 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 9 May 2023 and the lowest 30% on 15 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 73% on 30 Mar 2023. $72.22K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the $1 first price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 29 Mar 2023 – 10 Jun 2023
| Observed | $1 first price |
|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2023 | 38.0% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | 86.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Harbor 627C | $2 First | 18.52K |
| Vigilant-Pipe | $2 First | 1.6K |
| Jade Atlas 64FA | $2 First | 632.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will immediately resolve to “$1 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price of 1.0000 or lower before $ARB hits 2.0000. This market will immediately resolve to “$2 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of $2.0000 or higher before $ARB hits 1.0000. If no Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of 1.0000 or lower, or "High" price of 2.0000 or higher, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com, specifically the ARB/USDT “Low" and "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARB_USDT?_from=markets&theme=dark&type=spot with “1m” and “Original” selected on the top bar. To see the “Low” and "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the respective values after “Low: ” and "High: " at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ARB/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets. If Binance cannot be used as a price source anymore for ARB/USDT (e.g. the pair doesn't exist anymore), a consensus of credible liquid price sources will be used instead.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARB_USDT?_from=markets&theme=dark&type=spot
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-arb-hit-1-or-2-first
| $2 First |
| 555.72 |
| Ill-Appellation | $2 First | 400 |
| dsfsdf | $2 First | 240.36 |
| Genuine-Brief | $2 First | 152.63 |
| Barren-Dollar | $2 First | 93.75 |
| Uncommon-Dinghy | $2 First | 93.25 |
| HarvardInsider | $2 First | 57.14 |
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