Analytics
Resolved No on 11 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 43% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 43% on 25 Mar 2026 and the low 0.5% on 10 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 33.5% on 26 Mar 2026. $24.93K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 12, 5:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 39 points · 25 Mar 2026 – 11 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 43.0% |
| 11 May 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jopol | Yes | 1.95K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.89K |
| ChristianMueller6110 | No | 592 |
| JessicaCarter5463 | No | 531 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
| 3-12 | Yes | 493 |
| ChristineBoyd1006 | Yes | 259 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 255 |
| jennylulu2016 | Yes | 121 |
| Kenbu | Yes | 79.28 |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 50 |
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