Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled May 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$13.6K

Resolved

Settled

May 11, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 42% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 11 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 24.5% on 26 Mar 2026. $13.57K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 11, 5:45 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 11 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Mar 2026	42.0%
11 May 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.89K
Decent-Corporal	Yes	958.81
peepeepooppoop	Yes	289.98
bragav	Yes	263.88

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.