Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 63% on 17 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 92.5% on 25 Sep 2025 and the low 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 65 points down, to 19% on 5 Oct 2025. $149.65K traded over the market's life.
126 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 108 points · 17 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | 63.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tko55688 | Yes | 977.79 |
| chadpolmarket | Yes | 559.24 |
| SponGeeGee | Yes | 429.73 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-apple-release-homepod-mini-successor-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 360.06 |
| jabreu | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 245.38 |
| icelandash322 | Yes | 227.35 |
| GGBCHUO | Yes | 192.21 |
| Sigsauer29 | Yes | 150.74 |
| fairtea | Yes | 150 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
