Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 68% on 17 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 108 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 88.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 46% on 6 Oct 2025. $25.32K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 17 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | 68.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jabreu | Yes | 507.54 |
| lem0ns0 | Yes | 453.77 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 373 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-apple-release-a-new-version-of-the-apple-tv-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 272 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 183 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 145 |
| ItLobo | Yes | 139.24 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 106 |
| ReefWhale | Yes | 82.52 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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