Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 29% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 127 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 35.5% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 21.5% on 20 Jun 2026. $444.26 traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 1:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 127 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 29.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 7.71 |
| ContinuumSignal | Yes | 4.76 |
| intdtghy5 | Yes | 3.8 |
| vermeshel | Yes | 3.3 |
| DavisJosep | No | 3.3 |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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