Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 30 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 175 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 36.5% on 14 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 18% on 15 Aug 2025. $363.93K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 175 points, 30 Jul 2025 – 19 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | 22.5% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-portuguese-election
| GUADANHAO | Yes | 7K |
| dfafsadfaf | Yes | 6.39K |
| cbraga9 | Yes | 3.68K |
| cope78 | Yes | 3.33K |
| M3lvs | Yes | 3.32K |
| Other-Mocha | Yes | 2.71K |
| Complicated-Memo | Yes | 2.51K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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