Will any of the stolen KitKats be recovered by April 30?

Resolved

No, settled May 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.4K

Resolved

Settled

May 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.5%. Yes opened at 28% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 2 May 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.3% on 25 Apr 2026 and the lowest 6.6% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 21.7% on 26 Apr 2026. $2.42K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 3, 4:28 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Apr 2026	28.0%
2 May 2026	6.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
pmtosat-	Yes	35.14
Mojito9	Yes	15
tedibaba	Yes	5.04
Solar Oracle 7C6A	No	5.04

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.