Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 6, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$12.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 6, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 6 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.5%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 6 Feb 2026, the highest close was 98.5% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 98.5% on 6 Feb 2026. $12.04K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:04 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 6 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2026	55.5%
6 Feb 2026	98.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	221
Bold Scout BD7E	No	182
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	146
Jade Harbor B075	No	128

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.