Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 33.5% on 12 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 5.5% on 13 Apr 2025. $19.49K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 1 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 33.5% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| OMG-WHO-IS-IT | No | 2.42 |
| Minecraft | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market on predictions related to the advancements and implications of the second phase of the ARC AGI project.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-ai-score-on-arc-agi-2
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
