Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 28% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 74 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73.5% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 44.5% on 24 Apr 2026. $5.56K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 2:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 28.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| 69dsfs | Yes | 82.7 |
| TooYoungToWin | Yes | 49.16 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-coding-arena-score-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 42 |
| ruhuag | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 15 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 15 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 10.95 |
| bigshrekxx | No | 0.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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