Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 52%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2026 to 18 Jul 2026, the highest close was 57.5% on 17 Jul 2026 and the lowest 41.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 57.5% on 17 Jul 2026. $5.69K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 19, 9:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 16 Jul 2026 – 18 Jul 2026, chart shows 35%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | 41.5% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | 52.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| dunnaybot | No | 22 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 14 |
| keynesian.multiplier | No | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that access to "Claude Fable 5" will remain permanently or indefinitely included on qualifying paid plans, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. An announcement covering all paid plans does qualify. An announcement covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify. An announcement extending access only through a specified date or for another temporary period will not qualify. Access described as permanent, indefinite, ongoing, or continuing without a stated expiration will qualify. Continued or extended access without a qualifying public announcement from Anthropic will not qualify. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowance can be spent on Fable without drawing from a usage-credit balance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-announces-permanent-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713184131616
| rmgupta | No | 8.47 |
| Misty Harbor 3E6F | No | 8 |
| asfdt11 | No | 2.55 |
| PPMT | Yes | 0.01 |
| J25525 | Yes | 0.01 |
| DeepDitch | No | 0.01 |
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