Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.1%. Yes opened at 26% on 9 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 30.5% on 14 Oct 2023 and the lowest 2.1% on 13 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 30.5% on 14 Oct 2023. $97.3K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 2:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 9 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2023 | 26.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 3.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chadscalper | Yes | 8.04K |
| Idk-216 | Yes | 1.94K |
| FeetSniffer-228 | Yes | 1.14K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if another sovereign nation officially declares war on either Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2023, ET. Declarations of war must be clear, explicit, and from a sovereign nation. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market. Further note if e.g. Hezbollah declared war, it will not satisfy a “Yes” resolution - only Lebanon itself declaring war will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-another-nation-declare-war-in-the-israel-hamas-conflict
| Yes |
| 621.02 |
| RemoveBeforeFlight | Yes | 500 |
| KevinWan | Yes | 500 |
| Nansou | Yes | 497.94 |
| bvcket0fampz | Yes | 416.67 |
| ChrisHall | Yes | 166.67 |
| Anubis69 | Yes | 136.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
