Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 32% on 25 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 53 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2026 to 16 Jun 2026, the highest close was 32% on 25 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 11% on 26 Apr 2026. $6.63K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 25 Apr 2026 – 16 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 32.0% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.29K |
| cubandave29 | Yes | 1.05K |
| akko123 | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other” If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-team-will-replace-iran-at-world-cup
| Yes |
| 419.12 |
| tomatosauce2 | Yes | 257.05 |
| Authentic-Paint | Yes | 173.08 |
| bigticketchicken | Yes | 159.83 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 101 |
| fang1957 | Yes | 80 |
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