
Resolved No on 18 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.5% on 31 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2024 to 18 Dec 2024, the highest close was 1.5% on 31 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Nov 2024. $15.98K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 18, 6:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 31 Oct 2024 – 18 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2024 | 1.5% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 33.34K |
| WindWalk3 | Yes | 1.75K |
| toshapringle | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In US elections, a third party candidate is any candidate running as a member of neither the Democratic nor Republican party. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate other than RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Cornel West, or Vermin Supreme is the third party candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the total number of votes each candidate receives in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes
| Yes |
| 119 |
| Tornandos | Yes | 118 |
| williamsp | Yes | 100 |
| Sontrano | Yes | 75 |
| vivace | Yes | 58.74 |
| edwardwhite | Yes | 50 |
| slecnad | Yes | 30 |
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