
Resolved No on 11 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 10 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 10 Aug 2024 to 11 Aug 2024, the highest close was 26% on 10 Aug 2024 and the lowest 19.5% on 11 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 19.5% on 11 Aug 2024. $469.53 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 12, 11:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Aug 2024 – 11 Aug 2024, chart shows 15%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2024 | 26.0% |
| 11 Aug 2024 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 459.19 |
| cinkesadvio1977 | Yes | 0.08 |
| rautucerle1981 | Yes | 0.06 |
| MetalMusk | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Marathon (W) Winner
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/marathon-w-winner
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| DickTurbin | No | 0.02 |