Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 36 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Jun 2026.
Across the 120 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 30 Jun 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 13 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 14.5% on 1 Jul 2026.
$99.74K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $14.56K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 268 trades, $639.41 bought Yes and $38.57K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Altruistic-Gentleman with 85 shares; the largest No position is ChainReaction-392 with 73. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Altruistic-Gentleman | Yes | 84.65 |
| ChainReaction-392 | No | 72.8 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 67 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-an-international-court-find-israel-or-its-leaders-guilty-of-genocide-by-december-31-2027-20260629142909679
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 49.31 |
| Darling-Top | No | 25 |
| raidmafir | Yes | 21.37 |
| M.elena678 | No | 16.55 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 14.46 |
| Paoul1992 | No | 13.8 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
