Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70.5%. Yes opened at 72.5% on 9 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 9 Nov 2025 to 23 Jan 2026, the highest close was 92.5% on 18 Jan 2026 and the lowest 58% on 11 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 92.5% on 18 Jan 2026. $141.68K traded over the market's life.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 25, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 9 Nov 2025 – 23 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2025 | 72.5% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | 70.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| albertoepstein | No | 9.36K |
| cuckslugs | No | 3.57K |
| Chaegool | No | 1.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone on the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list (https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten) is captured by United States law enforcement authorities between market issuance and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A fugitive being captured is defined as the fugitive being arrested by United States law enforcement authorities, voluntarily surrendering to United States law enforcement authorities, being extradited by a non-US entity to United States law enforcement authorities, or otherwise being taken into formal custody by United States law enforcement authorities. An individual on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list being captured by a non-US entity, without subsequent extradition or equivalent transfer into United States law enforcement custody, will not count. Captures by United States forces overseas will count. Only individuals who are on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list at the time of their capture will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United States law enforcement authorities and/or United States local, state or federal government entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-an-fbi-top-ten-most-wanted-fugitive-be-captured-by-june-2026
| No |
| 1.02K |
| CagXD | No | 924.23 |
| Dependable-Mask | No | 500 |
| DTX92k | No | 432.86 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 373 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 356 |
| Gaseous-Navigation | No | 333.33 |
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