Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 5.5% on 15 Nov 2025. $29.92K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 49.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sniper108 | Yes | 1.36K |
| Blond-Classmate | Yes | 1.22K |
| abundance11 | Yes | 700.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On November 9, Trump voiced the idea of a tariff-funded stimulus of about $2,000 per person, paid out of revenue from new import duties. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/10/economy/tariff-rebate-check-proposal-what-to-know This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-americans-receive-tariff-stimulus-checks-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 649.95 |
| Vladic- | Yes | 481.54 |
| Scholarly-Ark | Yes | 393.93 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 380 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 350.09 |
| Silver Oracle E24F | Yes | 307.5 |
| RetireReNew | Yes | 300.38 |
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