Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 91% on 1 Feb 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.5% on 16 May 2025 and the low 90.5% on 4 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.8 points down, to 92% on 9 May 2025. $43.74K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 17, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 1 Feb 2025 – 16 May 2025, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | 91.0% |
| 16 May 2025 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Weak-Short | No | 111.11 |
| ZhangFei | No | 75 |
| 33hambone | No | 71.43 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a surplus for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If every month has not been published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-america-be-profitable-any-month-in-2025
| No |
| 10 |
| chaoti | Yes | 5.15 |
| roboto | Yes | 5.15 |
| theamityaff | Yes | 0.02 |
| Karekken | Yes | 0.02 |
| uriidmitrych | Yes | 0.02 |
| split | Yes | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
