Analytics
“Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$200 in 2025?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will Amazon (AMZN) close at in 2025?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Dec 31, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 39 hourly price points from Nov 25, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026 (Yes between 0.1% and 48.5%); 28 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.5% of the loaded shares; 114 recent public fills from 52 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final trading day of 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-amazon-amzn-close-at-200-in-2025
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.09K |
| rated | Yes | 967.28 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 432 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 246.99 |
| deezytrading | Yes | 220 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 209.65 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 187.38 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 122 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 122 |