Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 10% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 113 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 15% on 29 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 4.5% on 30 Sep 2025. $4.09K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 11:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 16 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 10.0% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HiddenEdge | Yes | 500 |
| Quantentunnel | No | 500 |
| moneyman777 | Yes | 322.08 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". A player will be considered to have qualified if they officially earn a place in the tournament under FIDE’s rules, regardless of whether they subsequently decline, withdraw, or otherwise do not participate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-fide-candidates-tournament-qualifiers
| Yes |
| 300 |
| Parallel-Portfolio | Yes | 200 |
| Mikaelpr21 | Yes | 98.65 |
| DavidChamagua | Yes | 73.09 |
| luuuur | Yes | 28 |
| Mopa | Yes | 18.67 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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