Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 23 Mar 2026, the highest close was 43% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 14.5% on 13 Feb 2026.

59 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 2:05 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 23 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Feb 2026	43.0%
23 Mar 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Trim-Trowel	Yes	24.39K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	23.88K
F1Champion	Yes	4K

10 of 59 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)