Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 51% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 82 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2025 to 2 Dec 2025, the highest close was 51% on 12 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 27.5% on 13 Sep 2025. $86.15K traded over the market's life.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 4:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 12 Sep 2025 – 2 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2025 | 51.0% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 179.03K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 23.77K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 13.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Spanberger’s certified statewide vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Abigail Spanberger does not receive the most votes statewide in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the Virginia Department of Elections (Virginia State Board of Elections). If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/virginia-governor-election-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 8.72K |
| rated | Yes | 6.86K |
| crediun | Yes | 5K |
| GayPride | Yes | 2.5K |
| Mangy62 | Yes | 2.34K |
| AnonymousUsername | Yes | 2.17K |
| Echelonprt | Yes | 2.05K |
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