Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Spanberger’s certified statewide vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Abigail Spanberger does not receive the most votes statewide in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the Virginia Department of Elections (Virginia State Board of Elections). If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.