Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 13 Aug 2026, the highest close was 95.5% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 72% on 9 Aug 2026. $1.01K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 14, 11:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 13 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 40.5% |
| 13 Aug 2026 | 95.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-tropical-cyclone-form-in-either-the-pacific-or-central-pacific-basins-by-august-14
| hesure | No | 10 |
| Weepy-Item | No | 5 |
| wkiy8 | No | 5 |
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