What is the “Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Jul 2023. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This is a market series over by when there will be a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

30 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 20, 5:40 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?

Market referencewill-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by-june-30Updated Jan 20, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Jul 1, 2023 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$427.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 1, 2023 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 22, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 20, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

96%

Yes / No shares

32.85K / 5.21K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

No recent public trade rows loaded.

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jul 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

140

Move

-5.9 pts

Range

0.1% - 14.0%

Jan 31, 12:00 AM UTC to Jul 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis
Utilized-Litigation	Yes	10K	1.0%	$10K
Limp-Mocha	Yes	7.6K	13.2%	$7.6K

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Jul 2023. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This is a market series over by when there will be a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who still holds shares in this market?: 30 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Utilized-Litigation

Yes

10K

1.0%

$10K

Limp-Mocha

Yes

7.6K

13.2%

$7.6K

Trader	Current holding value
Affectionate-Sticker	$4.9K
Quixotic-Isogloss	$268.82
Salad-332	$31.91
Emerald Voyager B06D	$10
Utilized-Litigation	$0
Limp-Mocha	$0
Cobalt Oracle FDC6	$0
Critical-Strand	$0
Melodic-Requirement	$0
Swift-Leeway	$0
olivercito23	$0
CFW	$0