Analytics
Resolved No on 18 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 24.3% on 7 May 2026 and the low 0.1% on 18 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 24.3% on 7 May 2026. $15.04K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 5:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 18 points · 1 May 2026 – 18 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 15.0% |
| 18 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rectangular-Evaporation | Yes | 433.43 |
| mountaingreen | Yes | 101.42 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Tsempi | Yes | 97.7 |
| Bumblebee817 | Yes | 76.82 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| Descriptive-Respect | Yes | 7.32 |
| Grandiose-Layer | Yes | 5 |
| wwder | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by
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