Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 35% on 29 Sep 2023. Before it settled, the high was 35% on 29 Sep 2023 and the low 0.2% on 30 Oct 2023. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 16% on 30 Sep 2023. $15.53K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 1, 6:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 29 Sep 2023 – 1 Nov 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2023 | 35.0% |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between October 1 and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-october
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