What is the “Will 538 call 47 states correctly?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will 538 call 47 states correctly? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “How many states will 538 call correctly?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 11 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This is a market on the accuracy of state calls made by 538 in an upcoming election.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

1 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 11, 1:39 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-states-will-538-call-correctly) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will 538 call 47 states correctly?

Market referencewill-538-call-47-states-correctlyUpdated Nov 11, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Nov 11, 2024 UTCdeprec-us-electionpolitics

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$409

Resolved

Settled

Nov 11, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Nov 11, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Nov 11, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

0 / 276.2

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

$164.58

Yes sell at 15.0%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Nov 11, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-1.5 pts

Range

14.5% - 50.0%

Oct 29, 12:00 AM UTC to Nov 11, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
wrjzzz	sell	Yes	15.0%	10	Nov 6, 8:46 AM UTC
wrjzzz	buy	Yes

How many states will 538 call correctly?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will 538 call 47 states correctly?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will 538 call 47 states correctly? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “How many states will 538 call correctly?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 11 Nov 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This is a market on the accuracy of state calls made by 538 in an upcoming election.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who still holds shares in this market?: 1 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

wrjzzz

sell

Yes

15.0%

Nov 6, 8:46 AM UTC

wrjzzz

buy

Yes