Question 1

What is the “Will 538 call 46 states correctly?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will 538 call 46 states correctly? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “How many states will 538 call correctly?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 5, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This is a market on the accuracy of state calls made by 538 in an upcoming election.

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($1.31K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 1 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Nov 11, 4:03 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-538-call-46-states-correctly) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Nov 11, 12:00 AM	75.5%	75.5%
Nov 10, 12:00 AM	53.5%	53.5%
Nov 9, 12:00 AM	54.0%	54.0%

Will 538 call 46 states correctly?

How many states will 538 call correctly?

Questions about this market