Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 12% on 11 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 56% on 17 Jan 2025 and the low 0.5% on 24 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 56% on 17 Jan 2025. $15.56K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 2:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 15 points · 11 Jan 2025 – 25 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2025 | 12.0% |
| 25 Jan 2025 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.51K |
| marksman | No | 0.06 |
| vveranddnis | No | 0.02 |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives between 53 (inclusive) and 55 (inclusive) YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”. If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense
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