Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 18 Apr 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 6% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 7% on 26 Mar 2026. $52.81K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 21, 5:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 18 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 14.5% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.81K |
| Pinili | Yes | 2.63K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 1.72K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-will-iran-successfully-target-by-april-30
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 353.61 |
| warptrading | Yes | 227.27 |
| timelesspo | Yes | 210.72 |
| pd.unique | Yes | 203.08 |
| flexbuch123 | Yes | 145.98 |
| Amused-Particle | Yes | 107.56 |
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