Will 28 named typhoons occur in the Northwest Pacific in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 16 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 16 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 9 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 8.2% on 17 Dec 2025. $2.57K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 12:27 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 16 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
16 Nov 2025	19.5%
1 Jan 2026	1.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.48K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	433
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	308.94

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of named typhoons (i.e., storms assigned an official name) that occur in the Northwest Pacific basin between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM UTC, according to the official list published on the Digital Typhoon website by Japan’s National Institute of Informatics. (see: https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2025.html.en) A “named typhoon” refers to any system officially assigned a name by the meteorological agencies responsible for the Western North Pacific basin. Only storms appearing on the 2025 list on the Digital Typhoon website will count. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until January 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.