Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 1 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 381 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2025 to 15 Jan 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 1 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 36.5% on 2 Jan 2025. $4.2M traded over the market's life.
588 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 381 points, 1 Jan 2025 – 15 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | 53.5% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Realdonaldtrump1 | Yes | 55.5K |
| Amber Meteor B425 | Yes | 37.17K |
| Os0001 | Yes | 26.65K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-2025-be-the-hottest-year-on-record
| Passat1998 | Yes | 22.86K |
| Jackwin | Yes | 20K |
| thebigG | Yes | 12.84K |
| back-in-whack | Yes | 11.64K |
| PraggSnarbo | Yes | 8.13K |
| Golden Raven BC74 | Yes | 7.23K |
| comeandsee | Yes | 6.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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