Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 86.5% on 3 May 2024. Before it settled, the high was 99.3% on 2 Jun 2024 and the low 84% on 4 May 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 93% on 6 May 2024. $190.13K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 12, 4:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 40 points · 3 May 2024 – 11 Jun 2024 · axis zoomed to 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2024 | 86.5% |
| 11 Jun 2024 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KimbalMusk | No | 8.27K |
| LeoR | No | 3.05K |
| iamsuperman | No | 66.67 |
| xueli5 | No | 25 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior May when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for May 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for May, and if 2024 May is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 May is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-2024-have-the-hottest-may-on-record
| dfcv | Yes | 1.01 |
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