Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 May 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 74% on 5 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2024 to 10 May 2024, the highest close was 99.8% on 9 May 2024 and the lowest 72% on 6 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 85% on 7 Apr 2024. $65.75K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 11, 12:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 5 Apr 2024 – 10 May 2024, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2024 | 74.0% |
| 10 May 2024 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rachele26262 | No | 1.8K |
| HarvardInsider | No | 540 |
| plog | No | 33.33 |
| Anonbushdid911 | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior April when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for April 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for April, and if 2024 April is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 April is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2024 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-2024-have-the-hottest-april-on-record
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