Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.7% on 30 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2025 to 2 Mar 2025, the highest close was 7.9% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.3 points down, to 2.5% on 5 Feb 2025. $231.74K traded over the market's life.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 2:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jan 2025 – 2 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2025 | 7.7% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 21.81K |
| YourPast | Yes | 1.23K |
| NuclearWeiner | Yes | 502.5 |
| speaker | Yes | 402.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork) This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001). If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-federal-employees-will-accept-buyout
| Pedro7474 | Yes | 333.33 |
| PolyDump | Yes | 100 |
| laurenmccarthy | Yes | 25 |
| grahamtiffany | Yes | 19 |
| jennifershaw | Yes | 19 |
| kevans | Yes | 19 |
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