Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?

geopoliticsResolved

No, settled Oct 6, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.6K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 6, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 6 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 49%. Yes opened at 26% on 23 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 6 Oct 2026, the highest close was 51% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 26% on 23 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 40% on 3 Oct 2026. $4.56K traded over the market's life.

37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 1:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.07K
Neon Atlas F332	Yes	188.13
Askeladd.	Yes	140.14
Shy-Note	Yes	123.74

10 of 37 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.