Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 39%. Yes opened at 82.5% on 11 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 14 Jul 2026, the highest close was 82.5% on 11 Jul 2026 and the lowest 49.5% on 13 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 50% on 12 Jul 2026. $2.73K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 15, 4:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 14 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 82.5% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 61.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SpamMisubi | Yes | 93.3 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.98 |
| justmeandme | Yes | 47.99 |
| spraynpray | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of home runs hit by the player recording the highest scoring round at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no clear and defined single round home run total within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-mlb-home-run-derby-most-home-runs-in-a-single-round-individual-20260709215259751
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
