Analytics
Resolved Wicked on 23 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Wicked at 100%. The Wicked side opened at 44.5% on 4 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 22 Dec 2025 and the low 31% on 6 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 53.5% on 10 Oct 2025. $1.84M traded over the market's life.
340 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Wicked price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 4 Oct 2025 – 23 Dec 2025
| Observed | Wicked price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | 44.5% |
| 23 Dec 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Actual-Node | Avatar | 27.19K |
| KyleSkye | Avatar | 16.49K |
| J1234567 | Avatar | 16.38K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Wicked" if “Wicked: For Good” (2025) will gross more domestically on its opening weekend compared to "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (2025). This market will resolve to "Avatar" if “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) will gross at least as much on its opening weekend compared to "Wicked: For Good" (2025). The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "Wicked: For Good" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=summary) and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-Fire-and-Ash-(2025)#tab=summary) will be used once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (November 21-23/December 19-21) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). Please note that this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether 'domestic' refers to only the USA, or to the USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by December 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/wicked-vs-avatar-bigger-domestic-opening-weekend
| Avatar |
| 12.69K |
| Backyardboys | Avatar | 11.91K |
| franklean | Avatar | 11.55K |
| ienjoymoviesgt | Avatar | 10.04K |
| CB2025n26 | Avatar | 9.99K |
| naughty.teddi | Avatar | 9.82K |
| keinsugus | Avatar | 9.33K |
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