Analytics
Resolved Sinwar on 18 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Sinwar at 99.5%. The Netanyahu side opened at 58.5% on 29 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 295 daily closes on record from 29 Dec 2023 to 18 Oct 2024, the highest close was 62% on 25 Apr 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 18 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 0.5% on 18 Oct 2024. $47.31K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 4:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Netanyahu price, Polymarket CLOB, 295 points, 29 Dec 2023 – 18 Oct 2024
| Observed | Netanyahu price |
|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2023 | 58.5% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Artemus | Netanyahu | 333.33 |
| 201124 | Sinwar | 138.46 |
| Icarus_eve | Netanyahu | 50 |
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/whos-out-first-benjamin-netanyahu-or-yahya-sinwar
| Detritus-950 | Netanyahu | 20 |
| Napoleon1769 | Netanyahu | 14.25 |
| edd1 | Netanyahu | 2.22 |
| rkessler | Netanyahu | 1.56 |
| Violet Vector 0D4F | Netanyahu | 1 |
| TaoJiang | Netanyahu | 0.04 |
| spasxe | Netanyahu | 0.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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