Who will win Erie county?

politicsResolved

Trump, settled Nov 15, 2024 UTC

Harris

0.0%

Trump

100.0%

Final Harris 0¢Final Trump 100¢

Lifetime volume

$222.3K

Resolved

Trump

Settled

Nov 15, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Trump on 15 Nov 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 90.8%. The Harris side opened at 45% on 20 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2024 to 15 Nov 2024, the highest close was 63% on 3 Nov 2024 and the lowest 9.3% on 14 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 12% on 7 Nov 2024. $222.35K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 16, 11:08 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 20 Sep 2024 – 15 Nov 2024

Harris price, first and latest
Observed	Harris price
20 Sep 2024	45.0%
15 Nov 2024	9.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Topher66	Trump	43.1
Trumpppp	Harris	2.73
DioBrando-134	Harris	2.5

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Harris" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election. If neither a Democratic or Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election this market will resolve to 50-50. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. If the margin between the leading candidate and the next candidate exceeds the number of outstanding votes (including mail-in) yet to be counted, this market may resolve accordingly. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting of the Erie county vote tally.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/swing-districts-2024

Dates

Event starts

Sep 19, 2024 UTC

Scheduled close

Nov 5, 2024 UTC

Resolved

Nov 15, 2024 UTC